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Still Crazy

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Still Crazy • 6 Posts (7

) •
5 years 0 month(s) ago

@Jdsteinb Thanks, prob right. My data is ALL numbers. That's the weakest aspect. Emotion and all of the other human factors aren't there but again they are! If the money drives the points and juice, the final result is included in the historical data of wins and losses. that method works for me. It removes my "hunch" on who will cover or lose to the ATS. Can't trust my hunch..haha. Lost way too much that way. GL In the meantime NO just scored! HAHAHA

	Still Crazy • 6 Posts (7 ) • 5 years 0 month(s) ago
It bother me that 1) all the data showed away dogs and 2) the best bets were on "toss-ups" but here goes. 1.5u; CIN +6.5, CAR +3.5. 1u; WAS +13, DEN +8, SF +1.5, DET +12.5, IND +3. NOTICE: Can anyone, including Walt, tell me how the DVOA value in spread is calculated? I've done well including this spread/number in my data for picks. Thanks. 1 0

	Still Crazy • 6 Posts (7 ) • 5 years 0 month(s) ago
It bothers me that all of my data shows away dogs and also bothersome that my data shows the strongest plays are on what I consider toss-ups. all 1u: WAS +13;

	Still Crazy • 6 Posts (7 ) • 5 years 1 month(s) ago
@time to sign I know it's been a while but I just looked into the CFB and NFL ML W/L relationship to the game TOTAL. I'm comfortable in saying there is no relationship. So, I'm sticking with playing the ML when the dog is between +1 to +9. The ROI is significantly better. That is, if your on the right side most of the time. ;) 0 0

	Still Crazy • 6 Posts (7 ) • 5 years 2 month(s) ago
NFL EARLY: 2u: CIN +10.5, PHI +3.5, 1u: CLE ML -113, KC -3.5, NO +3. GL Everyone 2 2

	Still Crazy • 6 Posts (7 ) • 5 years 2 month(s) ago - hide
NFL EARLY: 2u: CIN +10.5, PHI +3.5, 1u: CLE ML -113, KC -3.5, NO +3. GL Everyone 2 2

	Still Crazy • 6 Posts (7 ) • 5 years 2 month(s) ago
@Still Crazy Sorry, that's TB +7 1u on Liveplay. Ha ha 1 1

Still Crazy • 6 Posts (7

) •
5 years 2 month(s) ago

@time to sign Thanks for all of your NHL posts. Had a fun last night with the betting, but that's not the real reason I'm posting after a few years away from things. TTS, I did a fairly detailed analysis of all of your football picks this year and found an interesting tid-bit. When I filtered all of your picks on dogs (less than +10) and derived a total of wins and losses (based on all bets on ML ONLY!), the spread win/loss after vig was approx 63% BUT the ML ROI came in at 76%! So, I'll be going ML on all of your dogs under +10! Thought you might get something out of this if you haven't taken this angle at things.